Enhancement of Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara Axis Rapidly Minimizes the Influence of Russian in Transcaucasia

Another splash of Anti-Russian propaganda of Georgian President during the visit to Baku on March 7th is mainly related to the attempt to revive, lead the foreign political concepts of Georgia out of the crisis which has lasted since August 2008. This during the talk with the reporter of IA REGNUM was stated by the expert on regional issues David Arutiunov, commenting on the declaration of Saakashvili that Russia has no future as it is still building the past.

This concept itself according to the expert suggested positioning of Georgia as the main partner of the USA in Transcaucasia, and at the same time it would coincide in economic sphere with its transit role. “After August 2008 (Georgia-Ossetia war – ed.) the whole concept has been in a critical crisis, and Georgian President persistently wills to revive it at the cost of acute anti-Russian, in its essence propaganda declarations. Now we also observe the kind of splash which is also related to the occurrence of Saakashvili’s illusions that definite circles of the USA are interested to rehab the former role of Georgia. By this for last 3-4 years of Obama’s presidency, the United states have sufficiently distanced from Georgia, naturally without finalization of this process, but preserving some balance”, - considers Arutiunov.

To his mind, definite cooling of relations between the Russian Federation and the USA on anti-missile defense, the growth of tension around Syria and Iran created an illusion for Georgian political elite that the former role is possible to be rehabilitated. “This illusion has gained a new impulse as a result of that some time ago Saakashvili paid the first visit to Obama for last 3-4 years,” – he said, adding that into this propaganda fits the fact  that Russia under the cover of the establishment of the Eurasian Union attempts to re-establish the USSR, although they differ completely.
“In this respect, supposing that the geopolitical role of Russia in the region is minimized, as Georgian President tries to depict it by all means, absolutely unenviable is the role of all Transcaucasia states, as they, including also Georgia, mainly try to lead their foreign policy by maneuvering between various power centers. Disappearance of Russia from geopolitical map of the region shall result into that the field for this maneuver shall narrow rapidly and eventually these states shall become just dummies in the arms of out-of-region power centers”, - considers Arutiunov.

Regarding the attempts of Georgia and Azerbaijan to intensify the relations Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara, the interlocutor of the agency also underlined that for these very states more urgent is the line Baku-Tbilisi, but this process is of extended, non-regional character. “This has a whole set of reasons and also is connected with the attempt of Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem to isolate Armenia from any regional processes. At the same time this partnership has also economic motivations. This is a definite economic dependence of Georgia from Turkey and Azerbaijan. In terms of global crisis, when the weakening of contacts between Transcaucasia states and out-of-region economic centers is evident, there occurs the need to intensify in-region cooperation, which is happening at the moment within the line Baku-Tbilisi, naturally with the participation of Ankara”, - he said.

The expert also added, that all these create a pretty complicated situation for Armenia, including economic sphere.

In this respect he reminded that in the agreements that were signed within the framework of the visit of Saakashvili to Baku, a great significance is granted to energy cooperation. “Eventually, probably Armenia shall be pushed out, maybe not completely, from energy market of Transcaucasia”, - considers the expert. Except for that, to his mind, here significant is also a military-political factor, which is far-reaching for Armenia with that first of all a certain connection occurs (Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara), which completely cuts off Yerevan of its strategic partner – Russia. “In case of any acute crisis in the region, the abilities of Moscow to influence, project military power in the region shall minimize significantly in case if the axis Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara is finalized,” – concluded Arutiunov.