The oil process increased in the beginning of the year heated the appetite of Russian gas monopolist. Export gas price to Europe in 2011 will grow from 306 to 352 USD for a thousand of cubic meters. The average price of gas in the near abroad will also grow from 233 to 250 USD. A part of experts are sure that the price forecasts of gas suppliers will hardly come true. Others observe the possibilities for trade talks as Europe is still in need of Russian gas.
“Gazprom” plans to export to Europe 151,5 billion cubic meters of gas the following year, reported to RIA Novosti the participant of the Friday presentation-meeting of the Administration of the holding company with investors. Let us remind that last year the company exported to Europe 139 billion cubic meters of gas. Thus this year, this index can grow up for 9%. The growth of supplies is predicted also in the near abroad – from 68 billion to 73 billion cubic meters of petroleum. By this the supplies growth will be accompanied by the increase of prices – “Gazprom” is assured.
As a deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of the group Alexander Ananenkov reported, the plan of “Gazprom” production for 2011 is 506,7 billion cubic meters and considering the market dynamics the production of 515 billion cubic meters is possible. According to him, in 2010 they produced 508,6 billion cubic meters, the increase in comparison with 2009 comprised 10%. By this Ananenkov specified, that initially it was planned to produce 506 billion cubic meters of gas in 2011, but considering the market environment the production this year will be increased. According to the “Gazprom” Leaders in 2001 export supplies will remain at the level of 2010. “The increase of export supplies depends on how fast the industry of post crises West Europe will rehabilitate”, – noted Ananenkov.
Commenting on last reports, experts had different evaluations. The leading analyst of oil-gas branch Mikhail Krutikhin considers, that yet all export plans are still up in the air, as the forecasts of oil prices will be reviewed, and together with them export supplies prices will change. “I don’t understand how can one make such forecasts without knowing the movement of oil prices in future, with which in its turn export supplies are connected”, – he reasons. – “Gazprom” and its Head regularly make the kind of statements, trying most likely to please the leadership of the country This periodic flash of activity is explained that people expect from the group of companies some quantity points and forecasts. By this it is preferably for them to be optimistic”.
The Director of the Institute of National Energy Sergey Pravosudov observes no paradox in the forecasts of gas export for 2011. “It is not a secret that gas prices are connected with oil ones with the lag of six-nine months, – he notes. – So already today considering international oil environment, we can also predict gas prices. Judge yourself – now it’s a middle of February, by this lag is about nine months. It’s clear that the gas prices sounded today will be valid at least till the end of the year”. In this situation, according to his opinion, European consumers will demand discounts and other preferences, and “Gazprom” some time will have to make concessions. “But eventually they’ll bargain – we reduce prices – and you include us into energy projects”, – considers Pravosudov.
Translated by EuroDialogueXXI from Nezavisimaya gazeta
25.02.2011
