In A Multi-Vector Trap: Who Will Guarantee The Security Of Ukraine?

By Oleg Gorbunov

In the end of September Ukraine raised an important issue during the UNO General Assembly – who will guarantee the security of non-nuclear states? Which is the point to strive for neutrality if it will result into vulnerability? In this respect “Politcom.ru” asked the experts the following question: how do you assess the possibility of the signing of an international treaty that would guarantee the security of Ukraine and other states, which refused of its nuclear potential and/or which are not included into international military blocks?

Vladimir Fesenko, Director of the Gorshenin Institute of the Problems of Management (Kiev):

Basically, it is possible, and for Ukraine it’s really desirable (to increase the level of international security guarantees and territorial integrity of Ukraine). One thing is guarantees as a Memorandum, and the other – guarantees, stipulated in a full-value international treaty. But the development of the kind of treaty, especially within a multilateral format, demands thoroughness, taking several years as a rule. Today we are talking only about political declarations. If they will be followed by definite and systemic diplomatic actions, then we can also dwell on the prospect of this idea in practice.
Alexey Martynov, a historian, Center for Political Science and Technologies Analysis (Donetsk):

As historic practice and modern trends prove, they can sign any declarations, treaties and other documents on security guarantees, but in reality, everything in the world will be decided by the leading powers, first of all – nuclear ones. In this case, as the attempts of Yanukovich show, Ukraine can easily be a sort of initiator of such projects. However, this proves the weakness of international lines of Ukrainian state in this issue, the intention of Ukrainian authorities to use at least somehow its post-soviet nuclear-free status to enhance specific personal significance within the international arena. In general, the kind of initiatives can face international approval, especially in the west and if the kind of treaty is signed Ukraine will be promised charitably various guarantees, but in reality Ukraine will keep one fulfilling the function of the arena for geopolitical trainings and inner political ventures. In the modern world only a nuclear status or a unique status, as of Switzerland, can guarantee potential security. But Ukraine is not Switzerland, and the policy of demonstrative “multi-vector” or a unilateral “west-direction” will not give more respect to Ukraine either from the USA with the European Union, or from the Russian Federation.
Sergey Baranov, the Head of Information-Research Department of the Center of Social-Conservative Policy (Kiev):

It’s unlikely, as it’s not profitable for NATO and not that good for China and Russia. In the essence, this is a documental cofirmation of multipolarity, but for the states, following BRIC, i.e. weakening already developed main centers of multipolarity, contradicting to the USA.
Translated by EuroDialogue XXI from politclub.info