Iranian Compromise

By Karina Nikolayeva, Georgij Kovalev

Grave economic state of the Republic is the key factor to achieve mutual understanding and decision of Iran to make a compromise with IAEA


December 13-14th the meeting of the representatives of Iran and IAEA took place: 8 months after resumption of negotiations, the parties managed to agree and set a new date already to sign the urgent treaty. Anyway January 16th 2013 the parties shall try to develop structurized approach and later start implementing the given treaty…


On the one hand IAEA and Iran appointed a definite date to sign the treaty, on the other – there is a significant share of doubt left that the Parties eventually shall achieve the desired result. In course of last nine months the parties, having held four meetings, didn’t manage to reach consensus. Which is the probability of that the Parties shall sign the treaty exactly January 16th? It’s quite difficult to answer this question. On the one hand, the IAEA supervisors seriously worry about turning of IRI into the country able to create nuclear weapon. That is why they reasonably demand reduction of production of medium enriched uranium and access to military units in Parchin. West and Iran issue mutual demands. All the wishes of IAEA result from main signs, why Iran intends to create nuclear weapon:


1. Iran hides its activity from IAEA and other such organizations.


2. Nuclear program of Iran is controlled by the Ministry of Defense of the country instead of IAEA.


3.Iranian nuclear program mainly contradicts the declared by the leaders goals (production of uranium, enrich for more than 3%).


4. Iran has the document, in which it explains how to cast semispheres from uranium (i.e. how to make the main part of nuclear weapon).


5. Iran is constructing heavy water reactor without explainable scientific objectives.


6. Iran performed tests of ballistic missile which can carry nuclear charge. That is why IAEA demands open visits of military units and complete control over nuclear program, withdrawal from the country of more than 100 kg of uranium, enriched till 20%, stop the Fordo factory operation, where enrichment of uranium till this level takes place. Meanwhile for Iran the most acute issue is elimination of sanctions.


> Map of Iran


We can suggest that visiting by IAEA delegation of the nuclear unit in Parchin shall give the possibility to adopt a new set of sanctions towards Iran. This is what the representatives of the delegation say: “This time we weren’t allowed to visit Parchin. However, as known granting of access to Parchin is a part of the treaty on structurized approach and we hope to achieve it right after the conclusion of this treaty”.


In its turn IRI has been demanding from IAEA to stop investigation of its nuclear program for a long time, and earlier had presented its declaration from 50 points, per which Iran refutes suggestions on development by Tehran of mass destruction weapon. Also Iran doesn’t plan to make concessions to West within elimination of uranium 20% enrichment. As the Head of the Nuclear Energy Organization of Iran Fereydoon Abbasi declared: The Islamic Republic of Iran won’t stop 20%enrichment of uranium under the demand of other states”. These comments were sounded right after the finish of the talks. In its turn the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Iran stated, that the talks can be held exclusively on equal terms, when each of the party believes that second is sincere, when it’s impossible to trust the declarations of American authorities. It turns out that all negotiation processes are just fiction, meanwhile IAEA actions are controlled by the US interests.


On the other hand, Iran has found itself in a grave economic situation. The sanctions have been destabilizing the country for almost half of year. Despite the declarations of the Spiritual Leader, Presidents and Ministers of IRI, each month the situation becomes even worse. Currency reserves are melting and spent for the most  urgent goods, the country faces 50% reduction of profits from oil sales (President of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinejad) recognized it yet in September 2012), private companies fall under the limitations  of the USA. Development of trade-economic relations with neighbor states is of more political than economic character. Bank sector has also found itself in a hard situation. New bans are being introduced for the deals with legal entities and individuals.


In this respect, according to the representatives of international community, Iranians are ready to reduce the rates of their nuclear program development, if they are ready to relax the regime of unilateral and multilateral sanctions, as Tehran is for sure under pressure. Grave economic state of the Republic is the key factor to achieve mutual understanding and decision of Iran to make a compromise with IAEA


In general the meeting held was the same as the previous ones. The Parties agreed on new date of peaceful agreement signing. On the one hand it may seem that the US sanctions helped to intensify the process, on the other we shouldn’t exclude that Iran follows its own unknown objectives, refusing of severe policy and letting western countries believe their superiority. Anyway the parties agreed on the meeting, however that issue on signing of the protocol shall be defined exactly January 16th.


Translated by EuroDialogueXXI from politcom.ru