Intergovernmental agreement on the gas pipeline Nabucco construction lying round Russia forces Russian authorities to activate negotiations on construction of the lobbying pipeline “South Stream”. According to experts Russia will use all available means to attract partners to “South Stream”.
Russian authorities call not to politicize the process of Nabucco pipeline construction. Particularly, the source in the Ministry of Foreign Affair of the Russian Federation informed Interfax about it. “We are assured, that all gas transporting network projects should be based not on geopolitical views, but first of all on cost-effectiveness”, - underlined the diplomat.
“South Stream” will lie along the bottom of the Black Sea from Novorossiysk to Bulgarian seaport of Varna. Further one branch of the pipeline will lie through the Balkan Peninsula to Italy, and the second through Hungary to Austria.
He is convinced that “meanwhile, we say the same about Nabucco”. “To our view, it is still not clear about the guaranteed resources base, and in these conditions the risks of investments enhance multiply”, - said the diplomat. According to his comments, “it all results into prolongation of the terms of Nabucco accomplishment”.
> Nabucco Pipeline Map
At the same time the source considers that “South Stream” project is more likely to be accomplished: “It is economically grounded from the point of view of its cost-effectiveness, guaranteed resource filling, persistent demand on supplied gas and investments”.
Experts are convinced that the correct statement of Russian diplomatic department means only one thing: Russia joins the campaign against Nabucco project accomplishment. “The five countries included into Nabucco way have no consolidated policy. Russia could play on the difference of these interests”, - says the general director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov. “Most probably Russia will try to deprive Nabucco of its unstable resource base”, - thinks the general director of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov. He reminds that the President Dmitry Medvedev has earlier agreed on supplies of Baku gas into Russia for market prices. Before that Azerbaijan states that it was ready to supply gas through Nabucco. But the scopes of supplies into Russia are not big enough to talk about the freeze of Azerbaijani cooperation with Nabucco, - it’s only 500 million cubic meters a year.
Except for that, Russia has the possibility to press Turkmenistan. “Turkmenistan has nothing else to do, - thinks Konstantin Simonov. – It’s not yet clear when Nabucco will be constructed. Besides, to participate in Nabucco Turkmenistan needs to construct a trans-Caspian gas pipeline, and these are great investments”.
According to the expert, the participation of Russia within Nabucco project is only acceptable if we will produce oil within the territories of countries members or to-be-members, i.e. in Iran, Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan . I.e. depending on the place of oil production the issue on the way of gas will be supplies to European market will be solved.
Naturally, all claims about the participation of Russia within Nabucco project are a sort of a deceit. I.e. in future there will be a cause to say: “Guys, we suggested you and you refused”. I.e. no matter what, Nabucco gains anti-Russia character, that is pretty sad. Europe at the moment needs to solve other problems, and it drummed into its head that currently the main task is to get rid of Russia.
Turkey, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania singed intergovernmental agreement on Nabucco gas pipeline project, that anticipates the piping into Europe around Russia.
For Turkmenistan it’s much easier to agree with Russia and to resume gas supplies, convinced the expert.
The situation is also complicated with Hungary, that participates within the both gas pipeline projects. Hungarian authorities hardly plan to lay both pipelines though its territory, but Hungary as well as Serbia, “is interested in the establishment of powerful gas nodes – this way they will safe on energy carriers and will gain additional source of financing” – says senior expert of the Center for Current Politics Dmitry Abzalov. “Bulgaria can also profit from transit, but new government of the country will blackmail Russia striving for more beneficial cooperation conditions,” – considers the general director of National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov.
We remind that recently Bulgaria has suspended two projects with Russia - NPP “Belene” and a gas pipeline “South Stream”. Future Prime Minister of the country Boyko Borisov decided to clear up the agreements of his precessors to consider better national interests of Bulgaria. However, if Russia leads aggressive policy, it can influence the accomplishment of “South stream”.
“The aggression of Russia can on the contrary speed up Nabucco”, - adds Viacheslav Bunkov, the analyst of “Atona”. “Russia will strive to concentrate all gas around it and to buy it on huge prices”, - resumes Simonov. In addition it disencourages us to develop our own field of production, considers the expert.