Known Ukrainian political analyst, Alyona Getmanciuk, believes that the Transnistrian problem is a "spare part" for the authorities in Kiev
One of the priorities of Ukraine during OSCE chairmanship in 2013 ownership was declared Transnistrian conflict. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Leonid Kojara said at the conclusion of his visit to Chisinau and Tiraspol, as chairman of the OSCE.How Transnistria has suddenly become a priority for officials in Kiev and Lviv are the stakes meeting we discussed with the World Policy Institute in Kiev (Institute of World Policy).
Q: Because of the initiative of Ukraine in Lviv will be meeting representatives of the negotiations for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. Aimed Ukraine in this case and that might be the consequences meeting?
A: For Ukraine it is very important that the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict is ongoing. Meeting in the 5 +2 format that will be held at Lvovconfirmă this continuity. This is good news. The bad news is that the Ukrainian side failed to hold a meeting in Lviv leaders in Chisinau and Tiraspol. Remember that this invitation has been made both leaders during a recent visit by the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Leonid Kojara in Chisinau and Tiraspol. The bad news is not only that Transnistrian leader Yevgeny Shevchuk gave diplomacy a try and coffee, in addition to beer and football, which used with Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat before. These are, first, about what that particular interest in organizing meetings in the format 1 +1 is one of the stakes Ukraine during the OSCE presidency. Ukrainian side wanted to emphasize the idea that without political will primelorpersoane significant progress in the negotiation process is impossible. Ukraine, as the President-in-Office of the OSCE, received the first "flip" diplomatic direcţiareglementării Transnistrian conflict, although the psychological level this gesture was expected by many experts and diplomats in Kiev, Russia's attitude familiar format. In this situation it is important that the first "flip" do not discourage Kiev, as depreşedinte the OSCE, to promote other less ambitious and creative initiatives.
Q: You have mentioned a study that you conducted recently on expectations Presidency in OSCE that Ukraine has enormous potential to identify prerequisites for ensuring peaceful settlement of protracted conflicts in the region. Why this potential is not exploited by Ukraine?
A: Transnistria is not on the list of priorities of foreign policy that has Ukraine (actual time when Ukraine holds the OSCE Chairmanship this statement does not fit). Moreover, the theme Transnistrian conflict is not thorough enough by elitaucraineană in power. I was given the impression that this topic is interesting for Ukrainian politicians only as a spare part, which can be sold for a good price in dialogue with key partners - Russia and / or the European Union. Also, the very theme of the Transnistrian conflict settlement - until Ukraine's presidency in OSCE - was not a prestigious professional to satisfy ambitions for Ukrainian officials and diplomats, so many of those entrusted to oversee this issue, consider this position as one honorary exile. This approach certainly affect efficiency, but also their work.
Q: During the OSCE presidency Ukraine might change the situation so that Kiev to become more active?
A: I hope that the Ukrainian presidency in OSCE will make many politicians and opinion leaders are interested in this, but also ordinary citizens. In the imagination of many people Transnistria is a gray dot on the map, although, in reality, in recent years the city of Tiraspol appearance is very different from other neighboring regional centers of Ukraine. I personally have met several people in Kiev who have not heard about the existence of an entity called "Transnistrian Moldovan Republic", while others believe that Tiraspol is somewhere in Belarus.
If you become more active Kiev depends largely on the results of Ukrainian diplomacy during OSCE chairmanship. If they have at least some minimal progress, the chances for better dynamics remain valid, if not - it will prove that all investments of resources, energy and time are futile conflict.
Q: In your opinion, why Ukrainian politicians are so passive in this area, given that one third of Transnistrian residents are ethnic Ukrainians (mostly Ukrainian citizens)?
A: It is obvious that not all understand what additional possibilities is the number of ethnic Ukrainians that Ukraine will become a potential leader in the region. Even to elections in Transnistria Ukrainian citizens have a high percentage, as deemed in the self-proclaimed republic. Moreover, most Ukrainian politicians have never had the desire to resemble, for example, with their Russian colleagues, who carried wagons full of passports in South Ossetia, and later on to deal in the region of "an order of peace "under the pretext of defending its citizens.
Q: Many experts and politicians often prefer to say that the phrase "everything related to Transnistria decide to Moscow." Are they right or is an outdated statement?
A: Everything that relates to Transnistria maybe decide to Moscow, but certainly at least be coordinated in Kiev and Brussels (or Berlin) and approved in Chisinau. There are some players dependenţăîntre Transnistrian settlement process, even if is asymmetric.
Q: What qualifies the Russian initiative Ukraine Transnistrian conflict settlement?
A: Traditionally, the Russian side is skeptical of any initiative except their own. More so that a comparable initiative Plan "Yushchenko" from Ukrainian currently there. In general, any steps taken by Ukraine in the Transnistrian can lead to further irritation Russian-Ukrainian relations. Given the problematic dialogue between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine wants to reduce these irritants to a minimum. That is, if it becomes more active, should consider not make it worse dialogue and damaged between Kiev and Moscow.
Q: Yevgeny Shevchuk's coming to power in Transnistria led many to hope that this young politician (Ukrainian origin) will spur negotiations towards finding a long term solution. What is actually happening?
A: It is no secret that young politician - by his own will or not - today is required to be guided in its work by an old folk saying "Who pays that music control". Check Russia and the music that results from Tiraspol position is controlled by the country.
Transnistrian leader on Ukrainian origin are exaggerated. I do not have any reason to talk about some Shevchuk's feelings towards Ukraine after being elected leader of the breakaway republics as there is no reason to talk about any special feeling towards Shevchuk of the Ukrainian politicians, influencing the real decision-making in the country.
Q: In terms of state security, the option settlement would be more advantageous for Ukraine?
A: The version that will ensure that Moldova will become a truly effective and suitable working state.
Q: In a different context, You have said that the dynamism of Ukrainian diplomacy towards resolving conflict is a way to circumvent the EU's attention to the issue of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Is doomed to fail this intention?
A: Yes, the Transnistrian tier of activism could bring some serenity on the background of relations between Ukraine and the European Union, but the picture itself does not become brighter. Ie any attempt to change the Ukraine-EU dialogue, overshadowed by Tymoshenko case already for a year and a half on the Transnistrian issue is doomed to failure. The problem of selective justice is the main obstacle that endangers the development of relations between Ukraine and the EU today. And as long as this issue will be on the agenda, any successful initiative in the Transnistrian Kiev will not be able to help.
Q: Will deal with the role of President of the OSCE Ukraine? There can improve their image in the eyes of the West?
A: Ukraine has no other option but to make full use OSCE chairmanship to improve its image abroad, if, of course, Yulia Tymoshenko will not miraculously get released.
Thank you.
01.03.2013
