Will Iran Ease Its Line under the Pressure of Russia?

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov warned that Iran will face serious consequences if keeps acting freely within a nuclear issue. Russia also declared that it doesn’t support the final document adopted during the international conference on nuclear disarmament in Teheran. At the background of the development of new UN sanctions to be imposed towards Iran, the tension in the relations of Moscow and Teheran attracted a special focus of international community.

Why has Russia Become Bore Severe about the Nuclear Problem of Iran?
According to analysts, this has happened due to the following reasons:

First of all, to support Russian-American cooperation. After Obama occupied the post of the White House Head, Russia and the USA, grounding on their strategic interests, tried to improve the bilateral relations. The Russian Federation and the USA not only signed a new START, but also accomplished the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement signed in 2000. In this situation Russia doesn’t want for Iran nuclear problem to affect the cooperation with the USA.
> Map of Iran
Secondly, due to the necessity to solve a nuclear problem of Iran. After Iran refused to approve the plan on nuclear fuel exchange, suggested by IAEA, and launched the production of enriched uranium, the nuclear problem of the republic has got into a dead-end. Moscow intensified the pressure to force Teheran to make concessions within this issue.

Russia doesn’t want to find itself in a tight corner, when it will have to offend the USA and other western states or to damage the relations with Teheran.

Thirdly, due to the necessity to settle Russian-Iranian problems.

Iran expresses displeasure with the hesitations of Russia on Iranian nuclear issue. Except for that, there have appeared disagreements between the Parties, as Russia repeatedly put off the ending of construction of NPP in Bushehr and supplies of missile guiding system C-300.

Will Iran Compromise?
Iran has always considered Russia as a powerful shield against international sanctions. That is why, having faced a new line of Russia, Iran keeps experiencing a huge pressure.

However, analysts point that Iranian government views the development of nuclear technologies and peaceful implementation of nuclear power as an already approved strategy, combining nuclear program with advocating state honor and enhancement of the state status as a great power in the region, that is why Iran can’t follow to advices of Russia constantly.

Lately, Iran has made a number of steps in connection of American threat. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad  announced that Iran designed and manufactured centrifuges of the third generation for uranium enrichment, demonstrating by this to the world that Iran is able to rely on its own forces to develop nuclear technologies. Iran had an International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament in Teheran as a reply to the Summit on Nuclear Security held in Washington (the USA), to fight with western states for the right to vote within nuclear problem. Except for that, Iran also held extended military maneuvers in Persian Gulf and the Strait of Ormuz, to show the whole world its spirit and the ability to protect the security in the region.

How will Russian-Iranian Relations develop?
Disagreements over nuclear problem have incited tension within Russian-Iranian relations. Will the states decide to break the existing relations up?

Analysts think, that if Iran keeps on insisting on its line and refusing of cooperation with the international community, then considering the global strategic Russian-American cooperation and own interests of the Russian Federation, maybe it will maintain the tough stance on the issue of sanctions towards Iran. However, the kind of rigid line will inevitably lead to a complete break up of bilateral relations. People think that the worsening of relations with Iran, which is a big state of Middle East, can harm the status of Russia within the region, and the betrayal of Iran which has always been an ally of Russia, can damage the image of Russia as a great power. Besides, worsening of Russia-Iranian relations will also negatively affect economic interests of Russia in Iran.

Although Russia seriously warned Iran, considering a long-standing position of Russia on non-use of sanctions towards Iran and repeated change of Russia’s view on this issue, Teheran can use the hesitations of Russia on this problem to get greater support from Russia and to minimize the damages from sanctions.
World media monitoring

Translated by EurodialogueXXI