American expert Ariel Cohen has once again decided to play the role of visionary. He has promised that this year will become critical for Georgia, as it should now decide the fate of the state and the future course of its development. Due to the weak support from Washington the Caucasian republic can completely find itself in the power of Kremlin. Republican mood of Mr. Cohen has long been known to us. Let's see what kind of future awaits Sakartvelo under different scenarios.
The United States is in chaos. The current president, Barack Obama is trying to fall between two stools - to fix poor economic situation in the country and to get a second term in the White House to withdraw military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. Of course, Republicans, who have "occupied" Congress and are dreaming to propose a single candidate for president, are trying to interfere him with this. Under his direction, according to them, America will again become a prosperous country and an example for others. Obama's democratic mood has got tired many people not only within the country but also abroad. Some post-Soviet states, which entrusted their fate to the hands of George W. Bush, are hoping that if Obama becomes American president again, the U.S. will support them as strongly as earlier. Not far from it.
Immediately after the election Barack Obama was full of energy and efforts to end the standoff between the U.S. and Russia. After launching the "reset" policy, he showed that the senators can not sway the destiny of free and democratic states despite their great lobby either in America or abroad. And the president won the first round. But then it became clear that it is not possible to provide the needs of the state from domestic resources and Obama opened ugly truth that: all the wars waged today by NATO at the instigation of the U.S., is nothing than robbery for further enrichment. As it became clear that Americans not only do not know how to live within means, but do not want to do it.
> Map Of Georgia
Therefore, what Saakashvili called today the support of the U.S. administration, is nothing but the good job of the U.S. intelligence and senators who are feeding them, and Barack Obama can only lift his hands in dismay and pray - the election is around the corner. For Georgia itself, it is time to honestly answer the question: if they have chosen a course on self-development or transformation into another military base of another state. After all, Soviet ideology, which Michail Nikolozovich denies vehemently, was simply replaced by the same propaganda in the country. But now it's proudly called as "the integration into NATO and the European Union". Given how dire situation has developed in the euro zone, the Georgian course, frankly, is not so good. Europe is being consumed by the financial crisis and panic about the coming collapse and it wants to get rid of the disloyal members of the Union. And in this case it is really strange to be confident that Georgia will be welcomed with open arms to the organizations.
So, what Ariel Cohen advises? According to him, the administration of President George W. Bush has not made enough effort in order to send a strong message to Moscow not to attack Georgia and Obama's administration has given the Kremlin the leeway in how to manage with the consequences of war in the region.
In this case, according to Cohen, the postwar situation in Russia was switched to the mode of careful analysis of the situation. After all, the project of Americans is not only a "beacon of democracy" but also "Greater Middle East" - a vast region, including Egypt, Israel, Arab countries in the Middle East, Turkey, South Caucasus and Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, which the U.S. wants to democratize.
But since even the Americans can not afford to control such a vast geopolitical area, it was assumed that allies of the U.S. - Turkey and Israel - will become its "supervisors", and Georgia would perform the role of chain dog, barking at everyone who's planning to implement its own policies in the region, what presents a danger for its overlord. However, the Southern Caucasus, as the rear of the Middle East, should be stable and calm. And the U.S. stubbornly focus on its own national security actively involving Georgia under the banner of democracy. Consequently, in contrast to Ankara, Tbilisi will be a subject to exchange between Washington and Moscow, but not an equal partner.
To date, the United States has not submitted any plan to resolve the ethnic conflicts in South Caucasus. In fact, the support for Saakashvili's regime is a PR-technology oriented to the Georgian society. Therefore, there is no real alternative to Russian peacekeeping in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This means that if the course of Georgian development aims to stabilize the situation in the region, rather than vice versa, any peace project is possible only with the involvement of the experience of the Russian Federation.