Alexei Vlasov: Kazakh President calls for vigilance

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's statement at the Astana Economic Forum has become significant for world expert circles, executive director of the Centre for Political Science North-South, director of the Centre for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space of the Moscow State University and member of Trend Expert Council Alexei Vlasov told Trend today.


"One of the leading politicians of the post-Soviet space has touched upon such a huge range of problems that its ideas and proposals would be enough for several international dialogue venues," he said. "This is not exaggeration."


If we narrow the president's speech to a few key components, the unfavourable situation for the global financial and economic management will occur.


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According to Nazarbayev, the crisis is not over. It continues, Vlasov said. The reason is the obvious weakness of the system and the psychology of world business, a thirst for easy money, inefficiency of global financial management and elementary self-interest of the people managing the global economy. As a result, the global crisis is entering a new stage.


According to Nazarbayev, the authorities' actions even justified within one country intensify the financial crisis. For example, protectionist measures by national countries lead to a drop in the volume of cross-border trade. Everyone is trying to escape, proceeding from own interests and cash instruments, but a quickly used medicament may only aggravate the disease, Vlasov said.


However the most important thing is that the financial crisis has already turned into a chronic disease of the whole social system of society. One can fully agree with the president on this. There is a sharp deterioration in the social well-being of people and systemic reduction in spending on education and healthcare.


"The future looks at us with anxiety the President of Kazakhstan figuratively said, and in this issue we can also completely agree with him. The last four years spent by the global management are mostly in vain," Vlasov said.


According to him, it is necessary to change the system of the global monetary regulation, but where to find a reliable global reserve currency?


"It is necessary to fight against the non-transparency of global finances, but how do you avoid double standards in this complex process? Cyprus experience has demonstrated that simple solutions lead to complicated consequences," the expert said.


It can be said that the President of Kazakhstan gave a failing grade to the global crisis managers, he said.


However, according to Vlasov, this is not the assessment of their competence, but a statement of the fact: relating to a no confidence - no anti-crisis plan. Everyone says that we need a new model, but in fact engaged in patching the holes, he said. "And it's really critical with the loss of time, pace and public confidence."


And it is unlikely according to him, that the control over offshore companies can suddenly reverse the situation. The case is too advanced.


Nazarbayev once again reminded the audience that the crisis is such a multiple aspect one that requires global regulation of a new management at a higher level, Vlasov said. Will anyone hear the Kazakh leader's appeal? Judging by the speeches of influential economists and European politicians, Nazarbayev is understood, but it is a question whether he is accepted, the expert said.


"In my opinion, the crisis of confidence is much deeper than it seemed in 2008-2009. The problem is not only in worthless instruments and greedy managers. Feeling the depth of the crisis, the key players behind the scenes switched to the tactics 'every man for himself'. In these conditions, numerous anti-crisis meetings look more and more like the meeting of directors of investment banks hoping that at the critical moment their bank will certainly be saved by someone because it is too big to fail," he said.


Of course, the President of Kazakhstan did not use such harsh analogies, but I think that for a lot of people sitting in the audience it would be worth to recall the fate of Lehman Brothers, Vlasov said.