Preservation Of Foreign Troops In Afghanistan Is Not Change The Situation For Russia

In 2011, the United States decided to withdraw combat troops from Iraq threatened to change the status of American troops that could be amenable to Iraqi tribunals. In 2014, the same scenario could happen in Afghanistan. 


For this reason, Washington would like to agree on the status of U.S. troops as part of an agreement with Kabul. 


In this agreement, as it was said, three parts to the following issues: (1) General obligations of the United States to Afghanistan, (2) Special anti-terrorist mission in Afghanistan (3) The legal status of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. 


Ideal option, which is not realized, it would be the signing of this agreement prior to the race to avoid politicizing the issue. However, he had already politicized. Hamid Karzai, whom Washington earlier assured that neither he nor his protege will not take the presidency in 2014, used this agreement to impose Western partners own rules. He apparently hopes to be able to ensure victory in the upcoming elections for his successor and the continued presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan. 


This is an option, but should not be excluded that the Kabul and Washington did not agree. In this case, the United States in 2014 will withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan, and behind them - and the other partners in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan under the pretext that the mandate of the UN Security Council will expire at the end of 2014 Number of countries willing to stay in Afghanistan, in this case, is limited almost one Germany. 


Russia will not be satisfied with any of these options. In the first case, will talk about the fact that the U.S. de persecuted in Afghanistan ulterior purpose for which built a network of military bases. In the second case will be said that the U.S. and its partners withdraw troops without performing tasks that were set before them the mandate of the UN Security Council. 


It appears that the preservation of foreign troops in Afghanistan or their conclusion is not strongly change the situation for Russia, which in any case remain the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking (the threat of the emergence of the Taliban hordes in Central Asia can not speak). ISAF never will have the number, which would be enough for the complete suppression of the armed opposition and destroy terrorist groups and gangs. Also the international coalition will never be enough resources to eliminate drug production infrastructure. 


In the near term is not expected to appear in Afghanistan force that could cope with the threats of terrorism and drug trafficking. Once such a force in Afghanistan is not, and in the foreseeable future, Russia can not be an ally in this country. Unlike Washington or Brussels to Moscow maintain the existing regime in Kabul is not a matter of honor - for him not shed the blood of our soldiers. In addition, under this regime from Afghanistan carried out, in the words of Vladimir Putin, "heroin aggression" against Russia. 


Therefore, the fate of the US-Afghan agreement and the future format of the presence of foreign troops, the outcome of the presidential elections in Afghanistan in 2014, the fate of the regime in Kabul in 2015 - all of these questions, in fact, there is little concern the interests of Russia. And those questions that are directly related to its interests lie beyond the borders of Afghanistan, namely in the field of special services and the effectiveness of Russian armed forces in countering  the threats of terrorism and drug smuggling from Afghanistan and the ability of partners to Moscow CSTO and SCO to cooperate fully in the fight against these threats.