By Nana Gegelashvili

On the eve of the presidential elections in Georgia, the situation in the country remains, in general, relatively predictable and very stable. You can already say with confidence that no matter who becomes president of Georgia after scheduled for October 27, 2013 presidential elections in the country, particularly the sensation will not.


The fight for the presidency takes place mainly between three candidates - the latter-day politician, until recently, no one has known and, therefore, not blurry eyes of the voter, George Margvelashvily representing victory in parliamentary elections a year ago, pro-government coalition "Georgian Dream"; experienced politician David Bakradze, whose track record includes a number of key positions when he was in power, the ruling party "United National Movement", and Nino Burjanadze, the political activity is characterized by a certain inconsistency and vacillation on different sides of the political spectrum.


The outcome of the election is not yet known, but it seems that the sensation did not anticipate. First, the course held by the party of "Rose Revolution" and, above all, in its social sector, from the very beginning was not and is not now any significant support among voters, but because it appears that a candidate from the party David Bakradze have a majority. After all, it was not accidental that the support package of social programs launched by the leader of the coalition "Georgian Dream" B.Ivanishvili during parliamentary elections in the country, it has become a major attraction, was warmly welcomed by the voters and provided him with a convincing victory. A long list of successful team Saakashvili democratic reform has once again demonstrated the preference of Georgian (and not only) of the company familiar and distinct forms of state regulation him in front of all democratic reforms combined. And no wonder - today a request for the welfare state is extremely high, and it is becoming a global trend.


Secondly, the rate declared by the current prime minister B.Ivanishvili, promises to be more pragmatic and balanced and does not involve any significant changes in the political life of the country, which ensures the stability of the voter, at least in the medium term. Thus, it appears that the majority of votes in the upcoming presidential elections in Georgia will Margvelashvily George, with the support of the Prime Minister of the country, the popularity of which continues today to gain points.


Does this mean that those seeds of democracy sown Saakashvili during his tenure as president, which measures the length of the long ten years, as well as widely distributed and supported by a part of the Georgian society western model of democracy, will be trampled and the dustbin of history ?


Three factors confirm the continuity of the policy of Saakashvili and make it irreversible, at least in the medium term.


First, during the presidency of Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia has managed to turn its young generation in true Yappi, zealously supporting the values ​​of Western democracy - liberal reforms and the democratic standards that are necessary for integration with the West. Second, the course chosen by Georgia closer to NATO and other Euro-Atlantic structures as a whole is immutable - Moscow at the time could not cope with the role of guarantor of Georgia's security. And, the last major support for social programs has its limits and can not provide a long-term political stability and unity in the community.


In such a state of affairs in the field of foreign policy, the situation is likely to remain unchanged. Thus, we can safely say, at least for today, the new Georgian authorities to continue the course taken by their predecessors on European integration and NATO membership. Already in November 2013 at the EU and the countries of the "Eastern Partnership" should be initialed an agreement with the EU on the Georgian Association. Georgia will also continue to participate in the operation in Afghanistan, despite some protests from people associated with the military losses.


As for Georgia's policy towards Russia, it seems that the course of the new authorities remain committed to further pragmatism and, as a result - the normalization of relations with Moscow, which is dictated not only by common sense, but also practical considerations.